|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Introduction
At the end of summer 2004 I forecast further movement of EUR/JPY (see 25+ figures are possible (GBP/JPY wave survey)).
2 years later, in autumn 2006 the projected target was reached having confirmed the correctness of the calculations. The price has covered about 30 figures before the projected target.
The price kept rising. Unfortunately, the wave theory does not give us a unique answer about the maximum length of such a powerful movement, thought it lets us specify possible boarders of the pattern completion (see Methods of Price Movement Projection ). I will try to do it in this article.
Current variant of the wave counting
|
|
Figure 1. Wave counting on monthly chart.
|
|
The survey wave counting remained the same. Supposedly, upward double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) is forming. With correlation of zigzags (Y)=(W)*1.618 completion of the whole pattern may be expected around 251. Let's specify the area of possible projected values on smaller time-frames.
|
|
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart.
|
|
According to the current variant of wave counting upward movement may continue as the second leg of zigzag A-B-C may be not completed yet. The nearest projected targets of this zigzag completion is around 250 (C=a*2.0). The projections should be adjusted only once the fourth wave [iv] of C is completed.
Let's continue consideration of the details of the wave counting marking of the final impulse C of (Y).
|
|
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
|
|
In Figure 3 one of possible variants of wave counting on the daily chart is given. Supposedly, wave [iii] of C is almost completed. The nearest area of the projected values of its completion is given in the chart (red-yellow ellipse). The price has already entered this area (244.32).
Let's consider the final wave (v) of [iii] on the smaller time-frame (Figure 4 below).
|
|
Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
|
|
The values of the area of projected values on this wave degree are shifted a bit upwards in comparison with the similar area of the higher wave degree (red-yellow ellipse), the price is a figure and a half away from it (244.32), that is upward wave v of (v) of [ii] may keep forming. It is better to keep in mind the adjusted values still taking into account the previous calculations.
|
|
Figure 5. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
|
|
According to the wave structure of the last upward movement we may supposed that wave v of (v) is not completed yet. Supposedly, a pair of waves ([4] and [5] of v) is required for it to be absolutely completed. These waves may reach the area of the projected values (red-yellow ellipse).
It is more reasonable to adjust the projections on this wave degree only once wave [4] of v of (v) is completed.
Thus, scenarios of possible nearest price movement and guides for its further rise are specified. Though it should be remembered that this is one of possible scenarios of GBP/JPY movement.
EUR/JPY Supplement
As GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are «cousins», their movement is similar. That is why I want to speak a bit about EUR/JPY.
|
|
Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart of EUR/JPY.
|
|
Supposedly, wave (v) of [v] of 3 is almost completed. Yesterday the price reached the area of projected values calculated more then a month and a half ago (see Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY)).
Supplement (June 19, 2007)
|
|
Figure 7. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
|
|
Yesterday the price reached the area of the projected values (see Figures 4 and 5).
Supplement (June 25, 2007)
|
|
|
|
|
The price has reached the upper edge of the channel and has overcome the optimum projected area for several pips, the trend downward reverse is highly probable.
|
|
|
|
|
Forming of the supposed fourth wave [iv] may last for more than a week.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference:
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 16, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
|
|
