As wave picture changes every minute scenarios should be adjusted regularly. Sometimes not to depend on the current variant wave counting is marked from the ground up that as a rule results in good alternate scenarios.
These weekends wave counting marking of the main currency pairs was adjusted and complemented. Forecasts released earlier:
on the whole remain valid.
Details specification in the current counting and additional use of the key pulse points method make it possible to suppose that the market will spend most of the time forming two corrective fourth waves of impulse
[c] (that is excluding short wave
v of (iii) cunning waves
iv of (iii) and
(iv) will be forming)
up to the second half of June 2006. Currently it is just a supposition not confirmed by the market.
Adjusted variants of wave counting market of the main currencies and some alternate variants are shown below.
1. USD/CHF
Figure 1. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally.
Though due to the sharp downward movement and applied to the shape of wave
C Robert Balan's assumption (“wave
C may be double/triple zigzag”) we may assume this downward movement to be a global
impulse rather than zigzag and be ready for the alternate variant given in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant impulse
[A] continues, forming final impulse
(5) currently. In this case guidelines for correlation for corrective waves
(2) and
(4) of impulse
[A] are observed both by the depth and shape.
In case the supposition is correct in the second half of the summer another, third wave 4 (wave
4 of (5)) will be formed.
2. EUR/USD
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally.
Though due to the sharp upward movement and applied to the shape of wave
C Robert Balan's assumption (“wave
C may be double/triple zigzag”) we may assume this upward movement to be a global
impulse rather than zigzag and be ready for the alternate variant given in Figure 4 below.
Figure 4. Wave counting on weekly chart. Alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant impulse
[A] continues, forming final impulse
(5) currently. In this case guidelines for correlation for corrective waves
(2) and
(4) of impulse
[A] are observed both by the depth and shape.
In case the supposition is correct in the second half of the summer another, third wave 4 (wave
4 of (5)) will be formed.
3. GBP/USD
Figure 5. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting marking was adjusted minimally, these changes do not impact nearest price movement forecast. As earlier completion of supposed zigzag
[a]-[b]-[c] is expected before the mid of July and two fourth waves of impulse
[c] may end by the second half of June.
4. USD/JPY
Figure 6. Wave counting on daily chart.
This wave counting was adjusted more significantly than the other ones but these changes do not impact nearest price movement forecast. As earlier completion of supposed zigzag
[a]-[b]-[c] is expected before the mid of July and two fourth waves of impulse
[c] may end by the second half of June.
I have written several times that for USD/JPY the variant with final wave
[E] in the shape of zigzag (as the most wide-spread shape of triangle wave) seems to be the most preferable variant for me. I return to it again having adjusted its wave counting marking.
According to this variant first impulse
(A) is an impulse with extension in the fifth wave. In this case waves
1 and
3 are approximately equal in length (3 > 1). Quite complicated wave counting marking of wave
3 is given in Figure 7 below.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
None of the EWA rules has been violated here but alternation guideline is not observed either by the shape or the depth of corrections. Though there is a small overlapping of waves
1 and
4 endings acceptable for marginal markets, but close prices do not overlap at all.
Survey wave counting for this scenario is shown in Figure 8 below.
Figure 8. Wave counting on weekly chart.
Quite good resistance (108.50-106.50) is at the optimal for wave
(B) of zigzag level approximately at 62%. Zigzag
[a]-[b]-[c] may complete around these levels.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari.
