Introduction
At the beginning of 2005 (refer to
Annual-05) project date of completion of the trend in favor of the dollar was specified,
it was ~ March 2006. Some time later in article
Possible Variants of Correction Development until March, 2006 (in Russian) the methods with the help of which that date was specified were described.
At the end of October in article
Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian) possible price targets of the main currencies were projected. Though JPY was the only currency which managed to fix behind the key level and reach the projected levels. The other currencies failed to do it.
Recently the
limit date of possible completion of price movement in favor of the dollar,
April 6, was specified in the Monthly Wave Analyses (refer to
Monthly-0206,
Monthly-0306,
Monthly-0406).
At last last week the limit date expired and I had to proceed to the alternate variants which were given in those analyses and which are described in details in this article.
Ending of many-week corrective wave, expected from the very beginning of 2005, was formed
at the first half of March, but it was wave ending of rebound of the new trend against the dollar which has already begun, rather then the turning point of the trend in favor of the dollar, having approached very close to the last year extreme point. Currently the critical level for the scenarios described below is at this value.
I suppose that
price movement against USD has already begun and may last till November 2006 (or till May 2007). It will be confirmed in case price breaks confirmation levels. In any case further scenario specification will be done on the ground of analysis of the wave structure
at the end of October – beginning of November 2006 (refer to
Annual-06).
1. USD/CHF
Figure 1. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view wave counting in Figure 1 is the most precise scenario currently. Some roughness, inevitable in such a difficult pattern, is compensated for clear perspective of price further possible movement. Two supposed downward
wedges point at continuous CHF drop. And the fact that ending of March wave
[b] is close to wave
(A) or (W) ending makes it possible to assume that the “double top”, a
reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, is formed.
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave
(A) or (W) of corrective wave
[B] formed in the shape of the
triple zigzag. A pair of wedges (refer to Figure 1) makes it possible to suppose that downward
zigzag is forming. It is possible that downtrend will form more than one zigzag and movement against USD may last till May 2007.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one above EUR.
Figure 3. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view this variant of wave counting is the most precise one currently. There is a clear perspective of price further possible movement. Two supposed upward
wedges point at continuous EUR rise. And ending of wave
(A) or (W) may be considered to be the “head” in the
reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, the “inverse Head-and-Shoulders” with the lowest target around
1.30.
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 4 below.
Figure 4. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave
(A) or (W) of corrective wave
[B] formed in the shape of the
triple zigzag. A pair of wedges (refer to Figure 3) makes it possible to suppose that upward
zigzag is forming. It is possible that uptrend will form more than one zigzag and movement against USD may last till May 2007.
3. GBP/USD
Figure 5. Wave counting on daily chart.
Because of GBP sideways movement from the end of 2005 a variety of wave counting scenarios of this part of the chart occurs. One of such variants is shown in Figure 5.
Wave
(A) or (W) is supposed to be completed. Upward zigzag with wave
[b] in the shape of the
horizontal triangle is forming. Wave
(A) or (W) ending may be considered to be the “head” in the
reversal pattern of the classical technical analysis, the “inverse Head-and-Shoulders” (see Figure 6 below).
Of course, this is one of possible variants of prices behavior and in case the critical levels are broken (they are shown in the chart) I will have to adjust the counting.
Figure 6. Patterns “Head-and-Shoulders”.
Two patterns “Head-and-Shoulders”, given in this chart, were already described last year in summer (refer to
Daily-290705 (in Russian)). Now the same pattern may be forming with the lowest target around
1.88.
For survey wave counting refer to Figure 7 below.
Figure 7. Wave counting on weekly chart.
First wave
(A) or (W) of corrective wave
[B] formed in the shape of the
triple zigzag. It may be supposed that price upward movement will form more than one zigzag, whereas movement against USD may last till May 2007.
4. USD/JPY
Wave counting given in Figure 8 below was described in details in
Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis).
Figure 8. Wave counting on daily chart.
From my point of view this variant of wave counting is the most precise one currently. Though JPY inability to complete many-month impulse with price short upward thrust may make the alternate variant shown in Figure 9 below more probable.
Figure 9. Wave counting on daily chart. The alternate variant.
Alternate variant of wave counting is almost the same as that one of the European currencies. According to this scenario wave
(A) or (W) assumed the shape of the
triple zigzag and it is already completed. Downward zigzag with wave
[b] in the shape of the horizontal triangle is forming.
In this case survey wave counting may assume the shape shown in Figure 10 below.
Figure 10. Wave counting on weekly chart. The alternate variant.
According to the alternate variant first wave
(A) or(W) of wave
[E] of the global triangle formed in the shape of the
triple zigzag. It may be assumed that price downward movement will form more than one zigzag whereas price movement against USD may last till May 2007.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
April 10, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari.
