The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)

The Swiss franc traditionally fits in a downward diagonal triangle which can be considered to be a triple zigzag too. If the supposition is true then at present the ending zigzag V is forming, more precisely, its wave-link [B] of V, which connects the legs of zigzag [A] and [C] of V.

What shape wave [B] of V will assume isn’t known yet. But judging by the amplitude of wave (B) of [B] of V, it may be an expanding or running wave flat, and also some kind of extended wave correction.

Permanent search of an optimal variant of counting has led to changing of the pound’s wave counting. Supposedly global double or triple three is forming, and currently we are in the ending wave of the supposed horizontal expanding triangle [X] of x, which is a link in the ascending double zigzag x.

The Japanese yen doesn’t rule out that the global horizontal triangle IV will continue to develop, and to complete it the price needs to complete forming of the ending zigzag [E] of IV.

It is fair to say that if the price breaks the upper critical level (drawn by the top of wave [C] of IV) it may lead to substitution of the triangle for a triple three without principal change of the further expected price movement (see tables 3.1 and 3.2 of my book).

2. The dollar’s global decline has completed (v.2)

The scenario suggesting that the dollar’s global decline will complete in the near term and its large scale consolidation will begin belongs to this group. It suggests the beginning in the near term of the dollar’s global consolidation approximately 100 figures deep. Possible (but not the only ones!) variants of wave counting of the currency pairs under consideration are shown in the pictures i4..i6, below.

Theoretically we can’t rule out that global diagonal triangle has completed, but in this case the second leg of zigzag V constitutes only ~38% of the length of its first leg [A] of V, and the impulse [C] of V itself is rather clumsy. Besides, in contracting diagonal triangles the price tries to break the lower forming line, while in our case 20 figures more left to reach it.

Everything said above doesn’t allow to bring to the forefront such kind of scenario.

The completion of the global double zigzag x isn’t ruled out. A rather clumsy impulse (C) of [Y] of x is an alerting feature of the given counting.

In this scenario we have to deviate from the already customary downward global impulse and to adjust the general wave counting of the yen to a corrective form. If the supposition is true then a global double or triple three, and not a global impulse, is developing with a double upward zigzag x.

In such a case currently the wave link [X] of x has already formed in the form of a horizontal triangle with all ensuing consequences.

3. The dollar’s global decline continues (v.3)

The scenario suggesting that the dollar continues to fall after a modest correction, belongs to this group. It suggests the beginning in the near-term of the dollar’s corrective consolidation no more than 10-15 figures deep. Possible (but not the only ones!) variants of wave counting of the currency pairs under consideration are shown in the pictures i7..i9, below.

I think this scenario is demonstrably reflected in the charts i7..i9 and no additional comments are required.

Thus, the main expected event of the year 2008 from the point of view of forecasting movements of the currency pairs under consideration will be the confirmation of one of the considered scenarios..

Note

This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.

It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.

Abbreviations

Reference

• EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)
• GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)
• USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)
• USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)

• Imaginary Skewer
• Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction
• The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios

• Wave analysis
• Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market
• Wave Counting Marking
• Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)
• How to Apply EWA Forecasts

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com

January 18, 2008

When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.