 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Introduction
In Annual-07 the price movement was in accordance with the forecast. See Figure E1 for the result.
|
|
Figure E1. Final daily chart for 2007.
|
|
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
|
|
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
|
|
The initial variant of the wave counting, considered in Annual-07, supposes that USD weakening finished at the end of April with wave (B) in the shape of the double zigzag. This scenario has not been annulled yet, though it has not been confirmed either.
The ending of supposed wave (B) is the critical level, wave X of (B) ending is the confirmatory level. If price falls and fixes below wave [w]? ending it will be an additional argument in favor of this variant.
Though price has not broken the upward trend channel. It is most probable that zigzag-like construction forming has not completed yet. This supposition is basic to the following two scenarios.
|
|
Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
|
|
Supposed wave (B) may be assuming the shape of the double zigzag with wave Y of (B) in the shape of the triple zigzag. In this case only final wave [z] of Y should be formed to complete the upward movement.
Wave [xx] of Y high is the critical level before wave [z] of Y forming is completed. Wave [y] of Y ending is the confirmatory level. The area of the projected values, specified through the correlation of the main waves of the double zigzag, is marked with red-yellow ellipse.
Should we consider this triple zigzag Y as a diagonal triangle (see Picture E4) the price should not overcome point 1.4063.
|
|
Figure E4. Schematic wave counting marking on the monthly chart.
|
|
Possible variant of the wave counting of the global impulse with wave (4) in the shape of the extended flat (see picture 5-2 of my book) and wave 5 of (5) completion in the shape of the diagonal triangle.
|
|
Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
|
|
The third and most probable from my point of view variant supposes further fall of the dollar once horizontal correction XX of (B) is completed.
In this case wave X of (B) ending is the critical level, wave Y of (B) is the confirmatory one. The area of the projected values should be specified once wave XX of (B) is completed.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
|
|
|
|
Learn more
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+7 (495) 710-76-76
|
© 1998—2009 «Alpari» |
|
