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Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Annual-07, was forming in accordance with the forecast. See Figure G1 for the result.
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Figure G1. Final daily chart for 2007.
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For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
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Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
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The initial variant of the wave counting, considered in Annual-07, supposes that USD weakening finished in the mid of April with wave (B) in the shape of the double zigzag. This scenario has not been annulled yet, though the price is near the critical level and it has not been confirmed yet.
The ending of supposed wave (B) is the critical level, wave X of (B) ending is the confirmatory level. If price falls and fixes below wave [w]? ending it will be an additional argument in favor of this variant.
At the same time the price has not broken the upward trend channel. It is most probable that zigzag-like construction forming has not completed yet. This supposition is basic to the following two scenarios.
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Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
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Supposed wave (B) may be assuming the shape of the double zigzag with wave Y of (B) in the shape of the triple zigzag. In this case only final wave [z] of Y should be formed to complete the upward movement.
Wave [xx] of Y high is the critical level before wave [z] of Y forming is completed. Wave [y] of Y ending is the confirmatory level. The area of the projected values, specified through the correlation of the main waves of the double zigzag, is marked with red-yellow ellipse.
Should we consider this triple zigzag Y as a diagonal triangle (see Picture G4) the price should not overcome point 2.0569.
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Figure G4. Schematic wave counting marking on the monthly chart.
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Variant of the wave counting of the global impulse with wave (4) in the shape of the extended flat and wave 5 of (5) completion in the shape of the diagonal triangle is possible.
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Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
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The third and most probable from my point of view variant supposes further fall of the dollar once horizontal correction XX of (B) is completed.
In this case wave X of (B) ending is the critical level, wave Y of (B) ending is the confirmatory one. The area of the projected values should be specified once wave XX of (B) is completed.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
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