Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to
Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure Y1 for JPY survey wave counting.
Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
In accordance with the logarithmic scale prices movement resembles an
impulse with wave
IV in the shape of the supposed
horizontal triangle. If it is true its wave
[E] may be either single or double zigzag (refer to Figure Y2). Moreover, the whole fourth wave
IV of the impulse can form in the shape of either the
double three (the alternate variant of wave counting is given in the upper part of chart Y1) or some extended correction.
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
JPY has been forming the final wave of the horizontal triangle
[E] in the shape of the supposed
zigzag since 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the
end of 2007 because its structure is really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
The first leg
(A) of [E] of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Supposed wave-link
(B) has been forming since that time. In accordance with the wave theory, wave
(B) can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave
(B) may take eventually. Though judging by the inner wave structure of the following movement the character of further forming of waves
(B) of [E] and
[E] may be forecasted.
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Wave
(B) of [E] may be completed already, forming of the final leg
(C) of zigzag
[E] is in full swing.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave
(C) of [E] in May 2006, may continue in the shape of either an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle. The rebound of the last upward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
In case uptrend continues after expected retracement the alternate scenario will be confirmed. Supposed ending of wave
2? at
114.42 is the critical level for this variant. If price falls below this level, then wave
(B) of [E] may keep forming (refer to Figure Y4).
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave
(B) of [E] may continue to form. In this case the end of supposed wave
[b] of B is the confirmative level.
Character of further forming of wave
(B) of [E] may be projected by the inner wave structure of the supposed nearest downward movement. If expected downward wave
C of (B) assumes the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, ending of the whole corrective wave
(B) of [E] will be highly probable.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave
C of (B) may be expected in
June, 2007.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
