Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to
Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure C1 below for CHF survey wave counting.
Figure C1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
In accordance with the logarithmic scale prices movement resembles a
diagonal triangle. If it is true wave
V may be either single or double zigzag. In Figure C1 its schematic movement is shown as a global
single zigzag (refer to Figure C2 also). Its wave-link
[B] is being formed right now.
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
CHF has been in full scale downtrend since 2001. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag
[A]-[B]-[C]. The first leg
[A] of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link
[B] has been forming since the beginning of 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the
end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
In accordance with the wave theory, wave
[B] can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave
[B] may take eventually. Its first main sub-wave
(A) or (W) of [B] has assumed the shape of the
triple zigzag. Its second sub-wave
(B) or (X) of [B] also has zigzag structure, though
its completion is not confirmed yet.
The lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to
specify the reference levels, the
critical and
confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points
check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Let's consider the main scenarios of prices possible movement.
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Though wave
(B) or (X) completion is not confirmed yet, chances are great that it has been completed. This scenario is considered to be an alternate one as there has been no confirmation. In this case wave
(B) or (X) may be presented as a
triple zigzag.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave
(C) or (Y) in December 2006, may continue in the shape of either an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle, as well as an upward corrective zigzag structure. The rebound of this first upward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
Price fixing above the
confirmative level at
1.2768 will confirm the alternate scenario. Supposed ending of wave
(B) or (X) at
1.1879 is the critical level for this variant. If price falls below this level, then wave
(B) of [B] may keep forming (refer to Figure C4).
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave
(B) or (X) may continue to form in the shape of the downward zigzag structure. In this case the end of wave
X of (B) is the critical level.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave
(B) of [B] may be expected in
June, 2007. However, in case the downward impulse continues, the end of supposed wave
Y of (B) of [B] may be just a short break before the price zigzag falling (for example, in the shape of wave
Z of (B) of [B] ).
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
