Introduction
Forecasted in
Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed uptrend. The result is shown in Figure Y1.
Figure Y1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year JPY movement schematic forecast is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure Y2 JPY survey wave counting is shown.
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern
impulse with wave
IV in the shape of a horizontal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, its wave
[E] may be either simple or double zigzag, it may be triangle or any other type of extended correction (refer to
New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of wave
[E] development are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure Y3 below).
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening
till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of
double (triple) zigzag with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in
Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse
by November, 2006, its low may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction (wave
[E]). In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last, at least,
till May, 2007.
Though the first high of the composed wave, a part of wave
[E], or wave
[E] itself was formed in December, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure Y4 below).
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price decline and its fixing below wave
(X) of [E] low in Figure Y4 (or
X of (A) in Figure Y3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of March 9, 2006
Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January, 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
