Introduction
Forecasted in
Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed downtrend. The result is shown in Figure E1.
Figure E1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year schematic forecast of EUR movement is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure E2 EUR survey wave counting is shown.
Figure E2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Prices in the gray rectangle are synthesized and they are not unique. That is why CHF pattern,
diagonal triangle, should be better used on the monthly chart (refer to
USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)), as EUR often repeats CHF behavior inversely.
In case this supposition is correct, wave
V may be a simple or double zigzag. In Figure E2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.
Wave
[B] may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to
New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction
[B] first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure E3 below).
Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in
“Imaginary Skewer”.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening
till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of
double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in
Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse
by November, 2006, its high may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise price advance may last at least
till May, 2007.
Though the first low of this correction (or the final low of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure E4 below).
Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price rise and its fixing above wave
(X) of [B] high in Figure E4 (or
X of (A) in Figure E3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. Refer to
Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for the mirror description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
