Introduction
Forecasted in
Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed uptrend. The result is shown in Figure C1.
Figure C1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year CHF movement schematic forecast is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure C2 CHF survey wave counting is shown.
Figure C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern
diagonal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, wave
V may be either simple or double zigzag. In Figure C2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.
Wave
[B] may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to
New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction
[B] first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure C3 below).
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in
“Imaginary Skewer”.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening
till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of
double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in
Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse
by November, 2006, its low may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise, the US Dollar fall may last at least
till May, 2007.
Though the first high of this correction (or the final high of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure C4 below).
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price decline and its fixing below wave
(X) of [B] low in Figure C4 (or
X of (A) in Figure C3). Refer to
Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
