 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) For the last several days there were several letters in which wave analysts pay attention to the fact that the terminus of the wave ii of (i) of [a] of GBP/USD went beyond the beginning of the impulse (i) (refer to Figure 4, below).
I would like to note that there is no breach of the rules here. The relative position of the main waves of a pattern is determined by their terminuses, while the component parts of the main waves can enter the «forbidden» territory. I wrote about this in 2004 году (refer to Some explanations) and mentioned in my book (page 197).
|
|
Figure i1. Wave counting draft on the doubtful section of GBP/USD.
|
|
Please note that in this case the terminus of wave [w] of ii and not the terminus of wave ii itself went beyond the beginning of wave i. from my pint of view such an intersection of waves is quite acceptable.
2) Forecast for December will be released this weekend.
3) It isn’t ruled out that another round of the US dollar’s strengthening is completed. If the supposition is true a durable correction – horizontal or with an inclination against the dollar might develop.
1. EUR/USD
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Monthly-1108 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .
|
|
Figure 1. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dz.
|
|
|
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.
|
|
The development of zigzag A-B-C of (W) might be completed. Its completion will be confirmed after the price fixes above the 1.31..1.33 levels. The developing uptrend may be the beginning of a durable correction (X).
At the same time the possibility of the dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD)as the alternate scenario considered earlier isn’t cancelled yet.
2. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to Monthly-1108 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .
|
|
Figure 3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 1.
|
|
|
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 1.
|
|
The development of zigzag [a]-[b]-[c] of Y is completed. Its completion will be confirmed if the price fixes above the 1.53..1.60 levels. The developing uptrend may be the beginning of a durable correction XX.
At the same time the possibility of the dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD) as the alternate scenario considered earlier isn’t cancelled yet.
3. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to Monthly-1108 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline.
|
|
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3dt.
|
|
|
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Possible alternate.
|
|
The current wave construction allows several variants of counting a pair of which is given in the charts. At the moment they both point to the US dollar’s weakening (the decline of USD/JPY), synchronous with the European currencies.
In case the price fixes above the critical level the current scenarios can be cancelled.
4. USD/CHF
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Monthly -1108 and to the article Possible Depth of the Decline.
|
|
Figure 7. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dz.
|
|
|
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart. Variant 3dz.
|
|
Supposedly the development of zigzag A-B-C of (Y) is completed. Its completion will be confirmed after the price fixes below the 1.18..1.16 levels. The developing downtrend may be the beginning of a durable correction (XX).
At the same time the possibility of the dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF) as the alternate scenario considered earlier isn’t cancelled yet.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
|
|
|
|
Learn more
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+7 (495) 710-76-76
|
© 1998—2009 «Alpari» |
|
